Courtauld Commitment – the counterfactuals

Analysis was undertaken to appraise Courtauld targets, the analysis included consideration of a counterfactual. 

WRAP and Defra collaborated to develop an analysis in order to derive the targets for Courtauld 3. As part of this, a counterfactual was considered. 

The counterfactuals set out an estimated scenario for waste arising and volume of packaging produced based on no further Courtauld agreement beyond phase 2. This scenario includes impacts associated with the economic conditions that are expected to prevail over this period.

The scenario also includes the impact of existing statutory obligations and legislation over the period of the agreement. Therefore, the additional impact of Courtauld 3 can be measured against this scenario. 

In all cases data for 2012 was unavailable, so data is also forecast for 2012.

Different methodologies are used for each of the three targets:

The manufacturing and retail target counterfactual is based on output from the food and drink sector, taking into account efficiencies which are expected to be gained over the period;

For household food waste the methodology considers the demographic changes which are forecast to occur over the next 3 years alongside the changes in food prices and macroeconomic factors;

In the case of the packaging target the counterfactual uses industry forecasts, adjusted to reflect the impact of Courtauld 2 targets, and the legacy it will have on the industry.

As well as the most likely scenario, high and low counterfactual scenarios for each target are also considered in order to give an indication of the uncertainty that exists.

The full analysis is available here.